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  • 1   2016-11-26 BP世界能源数据综述 (编译服务:油气开发与利用专项服务)     
    摘要:

    For 65 years, the BP Statistical Review of World Energy has

    provided high-quality objective and globally consistent data on

    world energy markets. The review is one of the most widely

    respected and authoritative publications in the field of energy

    economics, used for reference by the media, academia, world

    governments and energy companies. A new edition is published

    every June.

    来源机构: BP全球公司 | 点击量:45
  • 2   2016-11-26 BP公司2016年能源展望 (编译服务:油气开发与利用专项服务)     
    摘要:

    The Energy Outlook considers a base case, outlining the 'most likely'

    path for energy demand by fuel based on assumptions and judgements

    about future changes in policy, technology and the economy, and

    develops a number of alternative cases to explore key uncertainties.

    In the base case, world GDP more than doubles, but unprecedented

    gains in energy efficiency mean that the energy required to fuel the

    higher level of activity grows by only around a third over the Outlook.

    Fossil fuels remain the dominant form of energy powering the global

    expansion: providing around 60% of the additional energy and

    accounting for almost 80% of total energy supplies in 2035.

    Gas is the fastest growing fossil fuel supported by strong supply growth,

    particularly of US shale gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG), and by

    environmental policies.

    The oil market gradually rebalances, with the current low level of prices

    boosting demand and dampening supply.

    Oil demand increases by almost 20 Mb/d over the Outlook, with growing

    use in Asia for both transport and industry. Tight oil continues to grow,

    although at a gradually moderating pace.

    The continuing reform of China’s economy causes growth in China’s

    energy demand to slow sharply. This slowing weighs heavily on global

    coal, which grows at less than a fifth of its rate over the past 20 years.

    Renewables grow rapidly, almost quadrupling by 2035 and supplying a

    third of the growth in power generation.

    The rate of growth of carbon emissions more than halves relative to the

    past 20 years, reflecting gains in energy efficiency and the changing fuel

    mix. But emissions continue to rise, suggesting the need for further

    action.

    The uncertainty around the base case is explored in three alternative

    cases: slower global GDP growth; a faster transition to a lower-carbon

    world; and shale oil and gas having even greater potential.

    来源机构: BP全球公司 | 点击量:53
  • 3   2016-11-26 2016能源展望 (编译服务:油气开发与利用专项服务)     
    摘要:

    The Annual Energy Outlook 2016 (AEO2016) Early Release features

    two cases: the Reference case and a case excluding implementation

    of the Clean Power Plan (CPP)

    Projections are highly dependent on the data, methodologies, model

    structures, and assumptions used in their development

    来源机构: 美国能源信息管理局 | 点击量:537
  • 4   2016-11-25 能源经济分析 (编译服务:油气开发与利用专项服务)     
    摘要:

    • What is the data series all about?

    • Why are we interested in it?

    • Who collects it and how?

    • Where can you find it?

    来源机构: 达拉斯联储 | 点击量:35
  • 5   2016-11-25 到2040年的能源展望 (编译服务:油气开发与利用专项服务)     
    摘要:

    Energy is integral to our lives in the 21st century.

    Energy keeps us warm, cools us down, and cooks our meals. It helpsus connect with our children, and lights the garages and labs ofentrepreneurs and inventors building a better world. Energy harvests ourfood, fuels our factories, builds our cities, and cleans our water. It keepsus mobile and connected with others near and far.The 21st century already has witnessed major changes in how peopleuse energy – for example, Internet-connected smartphones wereintroduced only around 2000; today there are more than 2.5 billion ofthem worldwide.

    This century also has seen tremendous advances in energy technologyincluding the ones that unlocked North America’s vast resources ofunconventional oil and natural gas.Together, these technologies have ushered in a new era of energy abundance – and diversity. Today, our energy can come from deep below the ocean floor, beds of shale rock, nuclear fission, biofuels,the wind and the sun. And importantly, development and use of each of these energy sources continues to evolve in ways that reduce impacts on the environment.

    While energy supplies are evolving, fundamentals on the demand sidehave been undergoing their own dynamics. Many economies continueto struggle, even more than five years after the global recession, whileothers, including that of China, continue to expand significantly, albeitat a more modest pace. Even so, global economic output has risenabout 50 percent since 2000, with better living standards for hundredsof millions of people.

    Another positive trend is our ability to find ways to use energy far moreefficiently, curbing growth in energy usage and emissions. The world usesabout 10 percent less energy per unit of economic output than it did in2000, with half of this gain occurring since 2010.

    Still, the need for energy remains vast. Global demand for energy roseby about one-third from 2000 to 2014, with China accounting for abouthalf of this growth.Meeting growing energy demand is an ongoing challenge, recognizingthe scale of supplies required to meet the needs of 7 billion peopleeach day. The use of oil alone – representing just one-third of theworld’s energy consumption – is now approaching 95 million barrels a

    day, enough to power a car 100 billion miles, or 4 million times aroundthe world.

    Several themes remain true today: Modern energy is fundamental to ourstandards of living; practical options for meeting people’s energy needscontinue to expand, including those related to efficiency; and the energyindustry is huge, growing and connecting regions through trade.

    来源机构: 埃克森美孚 | 点击量:34
  • 摘要:

    A lasting agreement and successful implementation of Israel's new offshore gas framework iscrucial for the development of the country's prospective gas industry over the coming decade. While recentapproval of the revised gas plan is a positive step, we remain cautious with our forecasts due to strongopposition to the contentious stabilisation clause within the country.

    Table: Headline Forecasts (Israel 2014-2020)

    2014 2015 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f

    Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 0.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.7 2.4

    Refined products production, 000b/d 291.0 292.7 290.5 286.5 277.9 273.7 274.3

    Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 232.9 233.9 232.5 227.0 222.7 216.0 213.9

    Dry natural gas production, bcm 7.5 8.6 9.1 9.6 12.3 14.4 20.3

    Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 7.6 8.7 9.1 9.6 10.4 11.3 11.7

    Brent, USD/bbl 99.50 53.60 46.50 57.00 62.00 65.00 71.00

    e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI, EIA

    Latest Updates and Key Forecasts

    ■ On 22 May 2016, Israel's government approved the revised stabilisation clause in the country's offshoregas plan, after it had been rejected by the Supreme Court in March 2016. While this is a positive step, weremain cautious with our forecasts due to strong opposition to this deal within the country.

    ■ In late May 2016, the partners at Israel's Leviathan gas field signed an agreement to supply natural gasfrom the Leviathan field to a power facility controlled by IPM Be'er in central Israel. The USD3bnagreement sees gas deliveries amounting to 13bcm during a period of 18 years.

    ■ In May 2016, local oil and gas company Israel Opportunity reported that its Hatrurim license couldcontain between 7-11mn bbl of oil.

    ■ Noble Energy is reportedly negotiating the sale of 11% stake in the Tamar gas field to three Israelicompanies - Clal Insurance, Harel Insurance and Finance and Menora Mivtachim. Currently, NobleEnergy holds 36% interest in the field. The estimated value of the deal - approximately USD1.0bn.

    ■ We forecast Israel's current refining capacity to remain stable at 297,000b/d until 2025. Gradually risingoil prices and increasing regional competition in the refining sector will push Israel's refined productsoutput slightly lower during our forecast period. Production is set to decline from an estimated 292,660b/d in 2015 to around 277,000b/d in 2025.

    ■ We forecast Israel's gas consumption to increase by more than 40% over the coming decade, rising from8.7bcm in 2015 to 12.3bcm in 2025. An upside to our forecasts comes from the increased usage of gas intransportation and power sectors.

    We believe that Israel will start exporting natural gas from Tamar field from 2018 onward. We expectthat the additional production from Leviathan field will boost the country's gas exports to a peak of14.2bcm in 2021. However, this remains dependent on whether Leviathan partners reach a FinalInvestment Decision on the development of the field.

    来源机构: BMI research | 点击量:106