This report contains data and analyses from Shell’s new Sky Scenario. Unlike Shell’s previously published Mountains and Oceans exploratory scenarios, the Sky Scenario is based on the assumption that society reaches the Paris Agreement’s goal of holding the rise in global average temperatures this century to well below two degrees Celsius (2°C) above pre-industrial levels. Unlike Shell’s Mountains and Oceans scenarios which unfolded in an open-ended way based upon plausible assumptions and quantifcations, the Sky Scenario was specifcally designed to reach the Paris Agreement’s goal in a technically possible manner. These scenarios are a part of an ongoing process used in Shell for over 40 years to challenge executives’ perspectives on the future business environment. They are designed to stretch management to consider even events that may only be remotely possible. Scenarios, therefore, are not intended to be predictions of likely future events or
outcomes and investors should not rely on them when making an investment decision with regard to Royal Dutch Shell plc securities.
Additionally, it is important to note that Shell’s existing portfolio has been decades in development. While we believe our portfolio is resilient under a wide range of outlooks, including the IEA’s 450 scenario (World Energy Outlook 2016), it includes assets across a spectrum of energy intensities including some with above-average intensity. While we seek to enhance our operations’ average energy intensity through both the development of new projects and divestments, we have no immediate plans to move to a net-zero emissions portfolio over our investment horizon of 10-20 years. Although we have no immediate plans to move to a net-zero emissions portfolio, in November of 2017, we announced our ambition to reduce our Net Carbon Footprint in accordance with society’s implementation of the Paris Agreement’s goal of holding global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre industrial levels. Accordingly, assuming society aligns itself with the Paris Agreement’s goals, we aim to reduce our Net Carbon Footprint, which includes not only our direct and indirect carbon emissions, associated with producing the energy products which we sell, but also our customers’ emissions from their use of the energy products that we sell, by around 20% in 2035 and by around 50% in 2050.